| 18 | COVER STORY It all began with a Morgan Stanley analyst report calling it ‘India’s Decade’. A summation of the economic promise combined with the country’s unique flourish with digital public goods to achieve public good at scale. Thereafter, the floodgates opened as it were. Not just investment banks, even corporates, countries and multilateral institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, started talking up India as the next lighthouse of the world economy. Everyone is betting on the country’s potential. This is no mean achievement. Especially if you consider the fact that even stronger economies were unable to cope with the polycrisis moment when back-to-back crises struck the world economy. This unprecedented moment began with the once in a century pandemic. Thereafter, the breakout of conflict between Russia and Ukraine—a regional war challenge that has now spread to the Middle East—worsened global supply chain disruptions; something that accelerated in the aftermath of the West initiating decoupling from China. Together with the decision of the United States Federal Reserve to ratchet up interest rates, this triggered a worldwide inflation spiral. This cost-of-living challenge has spared few countries. India’s remarkable resilience against global shocks together with determined efforts to initiate long overdue structural reforms—especially the alacrity it exhibited in the last decade in overcoming the legacy deficits in basics like access to banking, housing, electricity, roads, cooking gas and so on—and a calibrated policy response that balanced lives and livelihood caught global attention. More recently this has acquired a moniker: India Inevitable. India nudged this process further after it undertook a fundamental pivot in its approach to multilateral negotiations. It shed its zero-sum approach, where it saw As India pivots to a new growth path, its policy gambles are getting bolder and increasing in frequency, ambition, and success. INDIA Inevitable | 19 | itself as part of the problem. Instead, a self-confident India now casts itself as part of the solution. Consequently, it is now unafraid to embrace the risks that go with decisions enabling global good. Recent examples are its bold commitments to fight climate change or inking the raft of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs)--while FTAs with the United Arab Emirates and Australia are inked, deals with United Kingdom and United States are being negotiated. A few years ago this kinds of a bold strategic pivot would have been inconceivable. The successful conclusion of the G20 summit meeting in New Delhi in September is a tacit recognition of how India is harvesting the gains of reinventing itself on the global stage—lending more heft to the growing perception about it as a global entity willing to shoulder its responsibilities. India@2047 Internally, the Niti Aayog, the erstwhile Planning Commission which has been recast as the union government’s think tank, is readying the blueprint for the country to break out of its status as an underdeveloped economy and to evolve into a $30 trillion economy by 2047. A sneak peek shared with the media reveals that with population stabilizing around 1.5 billion, this would entail an equally dramatic growth in per capita income. If all goes to plan, then the country’s per capita income is forecast to grow from $2,400 at present to $17,590 in 2047—a staggering seven-fold growth. Underlying this desire to grow the economy so rapidly is a strategic intent: A belief that a strong economy translates into a country that is strong, both militarily and diplomatically. The logic is easy to fathom. The history of battles is replete with examples of vulnerable economies suffering defeat. Worse, in the context of the ongoing trend of regional wars, it is apparent that no conflict is short. Instead, it is a steady battle of attrition that could go on for years, wherein the country with the weaker economy finally caves. Given the recent turn in geopolitics, de-risking is a precondition to ensure national security. The face-off between the United States and China over the manufacture of silicon chips and efforts to shore up mineral security are sufficient pointers to the new threat matrix.
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